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Ari AbdiTampa Bay · Market Data
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Proven · the plays · Luxury buyer

Same million dollars. 2.4× the house.

September 9, 2026 · from the county record, published agendas, SEC filings and licensed MLS aggregates

Picture two closings. In Brandon 33511, a million bought a median 4,602 square feet on a 13,689 sf lot: room for the piano, the pool and a dog that loses tennis balls. In St Petersburg 33701, the same million bought 1,948 square feet and the walk to dinner. Neither buyer was wrong. 3,305 homes closed above $1M here in a year and the spread per foot was 3.5×, so the first question is not the budget. It is: do we want the yard or the water? Answer that, then read the five sales below, straight from the county record.

3,305$1M+ closings, 12 mo
$253/sfMost house per $: Brandon 33511
$879/sfLeast: St Petersburg 33701
13,689 sfYard you get in Brandon 33511 (median lot)
Oldsmar 34677: 12 daysHow fast you must decide (fastest $1M+ ZIP)
622 · $923 vs $921$3M+ for sale now · asking vs closed per sf
Shopping at $1M, $2M or $3M+: what is listed against what actually closed
BandFor sale nowAsking $/sfClosed $/sf, 12 moClosings, 12 moDays to contractMonths of supplyMost house per $ (closed)
$1M–2M2,437$476$4692,47936d10.5 moBrandon 33511 · $253/sf on 4,602 sf
$2M–3M630$661$70752626d15.1 moTampa 33613 · $470/sf on 5,246 sf
$3M+622$923$92130040d24.6 moTampa 33613 · $592/sf on 5,784 sf

Active listings and closings are licensed MLS aggregates for single-family, townhouse and condo across Hillsborough, Pinellas and Pasco; "asking" is the median list price per heated square foot today, "closed" the median of the last twelve months of sales in the band.

Five examples

  1. 125 Hidden Estates Ct, Brandon 33511
    recorded October 27, 2025 at $1,230,000 · built 2024 · assessed $855,342

    Brandon 33511 closes $1M+ homes at about $253/sf on a median 4,602 sf: this is what "more house" looks like.

  2. 19328 Eagle Creek Ln, Tampa 33647
    recorded June 5, 2026 at $1,050,000 · built 2023 · assessed $727,704

    Tampa 33647 closes $1M+ homes at about $270/sf on a median 4,544 sf: this is what "more house" looks like.

  3. 1808 W Erna Dr, Lutz 33559
    recorded June 18, 2026 at $1,075,000 · built 2025 · assessed $613,667

    Lutz 33559 closes $1M+ homes at about $282/sf on a median 4,747 sf: this is what "more house" looks like.

  4. 29171 Ginnetto, Wesley Chapel 33543
    recorded June 17, 2026 at $1,160,000 · built 2021 · assessed $910,397

    Wesley Chapel 33543 closes $1M+ homes at about $288/sf on a median 4,069 sf: this is what "more house" looks like.

  5. 610 5th St N, St Petersburg 33701
    recorded June 24, 2026 at $1,675,000 · built 2023 · assessed $890,004

    St Petersburg 33701 runs $879/sf, 247% more per foot than Brandon 33511: here the money buys the street and the water.

Examples are public records: county appraiser parcels, recorded deeds, published agendas, SEC filings. No listing, photo or valuation of a specific home.

Five more answers

Will we actually get a yard at $1M?

In Brandon 33511 the median $1M+ lot was 13,689 sf, in Tampa 33647 the median $1M+ lot was 16,051 sf, in Lutz 33559 the median $1M+ lot was 38,292 sf. In Tampa 33607 it was 5,227 sf and Tampa 33602 it was 6,000 sf. Same money, very different Saturdays.

New build or a house with character?

Brandon 33511 is 69% new construction at $253/sf; Lithia 33547 is 40% new construction at $301/sf; at the top of the market, St Petersburg 33701 is mostly condo towers with a median year built of 2025 and Indian Rocks Beach 33785 is mostly houses with a median year built of 1988.

How fast do we have to decide?

Oldsmar 34677 goes under contract in a median 12 days; Lithia 33547 goes under contract in a median 15 days; Tampa 33613 goes under contract in a median 16 days. Have the pre-approval and the inspector lined up before the first showing there.

I want a $3M house. Where does it buy the most, and how much room is there?

622 homes are listed at $3M+ across the three counties, asking a median $923 per square foot against $921 for the 300 that actually closed in the last year, about 24.6 months of supply. The most house per dollar at that level closed in Tampa 33613: $592/sf on a median 5,784 sf. The gap between asking and closed is your negotiating room.

Can you tell me what a specific $1M+ home is worth?

Not on a public page. Send the address and I pull the actual closings around it and send a written take.

Sources: Stellar MLS closed sales (ZIP aggregates, under license) · County Property Appraiser recorded sales and assessed values. Homes for sale that fit this play: Proven.

Want this run for your street, your lot or your building?

Tell me the property and the play you have in mind. I pull the closed sales, the recorded deeds, the permits and the hearings around it and send you a written take — from a licensed agent, not a widget. No valuation on a public page; the licence does not allow it and a number without seeing the property is not worth much anyway.