October 26, 2026. Each play is one pitch, five examples from the public record with the reason each one matters, and five straight answers. A play is only posted on days the record supports five examples.
Picture two closings. In Brandon 33511, a million bought a median 4,602 square feet on a 11,889 sf lot: room for the piano, the pool and a dog that loses tennis balls. In St Petersburg 33701, the same million bought 1,948 square feet and the walk to dinner. Neither buyer was wrong. 3,368 homes closed above $1M here in a year and the spread per foot was 3.4×, so the first question is not the budget. It is: do we want the yard or the water? Answer that, then read the five sales below, straight from the county record.
In Tampa 33629, Tampa 33611, Tampa 33609, the county appraiser has quietly stopped counting the house: on 802 lots in Tampa 33629 alone, the land is at least 70% of the value. Builders read those rolls the way other people read menus. Mobley Homes paid a median $700,000 for 10 South Tampa lots this year, and one Hillsborough lot went from $309,300 to a $1,495,000 sale in 556 days. If you own the tired ranch on the pretty street, congratulations: you own a lot with a price on it, and the price is not the one in the mailer. Five examples from the deed record.
Cash buyers with a track record recorded 56 purchases in Hillsborough in the last 90 days, 1.6× last year’s pace, and 98 in Pinellas. They hunt in packs: Tampa 33619, St Petersburg 33713, St Petersburg 33703, paying a median $201k. Here is what the letter in your mailbox leaves out: the county record shows resold homes turning in about 148 days at 1.59× what was paid. That gap is the renovation, the risk, and their profit, and some of it is yours if you make them compete instead of taking the first number. Five recorded purchases below.
60% of the homes for sale in Hudson 34669 have already cut their price, by a median $5k, and the rest have sat 47 days. Land O Lakes 34639 and Lutz 33558 are close behind. That is not a sad market. It is a negotiable one. In Pinellas Park 33781 it is the opposite: 37% of the inventory is already under contract and you will be the one competing. So in the first list, offer where the repriced homes settled and ask for closing costs too; in the second, be pre-approved before you fall in love. Five ZIPs below, with the numbers.
Builders shop a year before the model home opens, and they leave receipts. Lennar recorded 784 deeds in Hillsborough in twelve months, PulteGroup 264, and Ashton Woods is accelerating. The boards heard 248 land-use items in Hillsborough in 90 days, every one of them public. If you own acreage in the path, the worst move is selling before the approval next door lands, and the second worst is signing the first option contract you are handed. Five items from the deed and hearing record.
New apartments do not hurt a duplex owner the week they are approved. They arrive two years later, with a free month on every lease and a rooftop pool. The approvals are public now: Pinellas heard 8 apartment items in 90 days, Pasco heard 6 apartment items in 90 days, 14 across the three counties. CAMDEN PROPERTY TRUST and MID AMERICA APARTMENT COMMUNITIES INC. named this metro in their filings. Small multifamily still trades: 511 closings in a year, median $406k in Hillsborough. If your lease turns over the month a 300-unit building opens, you negotiate from behind, so sign the longer lease now, while the crane is still a drawing. Five items from the calendar.
Tell me the property and the play you have in mind. I pull the closed sales, the recorded deeds, the permits and the hearings around it and send you a written take — from a licensed agent, not a widget. No valuation on a public page; the licence does not allow it and a number without seeing the property is not worth much anyway.