September 9, 2026. Each play is one pitch, five examples from the public record with the reason each one matters, and five straight answers. A play is only posted on days the record supports five examples.
Picture two closings. In Brandon 33511, a million bought a median 4,602 square feet on a 13,689 sf lot: room for the piano, the pool and a dog that loses tennis balls. In St Petersburg 33701, the same million bought 1,948 square feet and the walk to dinner. Neither buyer was wrong. 3,305 homes closed above $1M here in a year and the spread per foot was 3.5×, so the first question is not the budget. It is: do we want the yard or the water? Answer that, then read the five sales below, straight from the county record.
In Tampa 33629, Tampa 33611, Tampa 33609, the county appraiser has quietly stopped counting the house: on 765 lots in Tampa 33629 alone, the land is at least 70% of the value. Builders read those rolls the way other people read menus. Mobley Homes paid a median $730,000 for 8 South Tampa lots this year, and one Pinellas lot went from $325,000 to a $1,595,000 sale in 425 days. If you own the tired ranch on the pretty street, congratulations: you own a lot with a price on it, and the price is not the one in the mailer. Five examples from the deed record.
Cash buyers with a track record recorded 113 purchases in Hillsborough in the last 90 days, 2.6× last year’s pace, and 65 in Pinellas. They hunt in packs: Tampa 33604, Tampa 33611, Tampa 33619, paying a median $200k. Here is what the letter in your mailbox leaves out: the pros resell in about 154 days for 1.59× what they paid. That gap is the renovation, the risk, and their profit, and some of it is yours if you make them compete instead of taking the first number. Five recorded purchases below.
40% of the homes for sale in Holiday 34690 have already cut their price, by a median $5k, and the rest have sat 50 days. Valrico 33596 and St Petersburg 33710 are close behind. That is not a sad market. It is a negotiable one. In Tampa 33625 it is the opposite: 35% of the inventory is already under contract and you will be the one competing. So in the first list, offer where the repriced homes settled and ask for closing costs too; in the second, be pre-approved before you fall in love. Five ZIPs below, with the numbers.
Builders shop a year before the model home opens, and they leave receipts. Lennar recorded 780 deeds in Hillsborough in twelve months, PulteGroup 288, and Ashton Woods is accelerating. The boards heard 227 land-use items in Hillsborough in 90 days, every one of them public. If you own acreage in the path, the worst move is selling before the approval next door lands, and the second worst is signing the first option contract you are handed. Five items from the deed and hearing record.
A 10-K cannot bluff, and 23 public companies used expansion language about this metro in theirs this year, 13 of them confirmed buyers: Belpointe PREP, LLC needs restaurant sites, CAMDEN PROPERTY TRUST needs housing, Amerant Bancorp Inc. needs office space. Meanwhile 100 industrial and 288 retail properties sit on the market waiting for a buyer nobody has named. If you own one of them, you now have a name, a filing and a reason to call before you ever list. Five filers below, with the filing.
New apartments do not hurt a duplex owner the week they are approved. They arrive two years later, with a free month on every lease and a rooftop pool. The approvals are public now: Pasco heard 9 apartment items in 90 days, Pinellas heard 6 apartment items in 90 days, 16 across the three counties. CAMDEN PROPERTY TRUST and MID AMERICA APARTMENT COMMUNITIES INC. named this metro in their filings. Small multifamily still trades: 523 closings in a year, median $425k in Hillsborough. If your lease turns over the month a 300-unit building opens, you negotiate from behind, so sign the longer lease now, while the crane is still a drawing. Five items from the calendar.
Tell me the property and the play you have in mind. I pull the closed sales, the recorded deeds, the permits and the hearings around it and send you a written take — from a licensed agent, not a widget. No valuation on a public page; the licence does not allow it and a number without seeing the property is not worth much anyway.