Five picks each for investors, builders and sellers

Where the rent is highest against the price

Luxury homes that nearby leases put in the top third for rent against price really did rent for 7.6% of their price a year once bought and leased, against 5.5% for the bottom third. These picks are ranked on what is left after a new owner’s property tax and HOA fees.

Open pick · For sale

$1,149,900

4833 Windmill Palm Terrace, St Petersburg

3 bd · 2 ba · 2,517 sq ft · built 1995

• Estimated rent $6,150/month (36 leases nearby: $4,300–$9,500)
• Costs a new owner inherits: property tax about $18,400/year, HOA/condo fees $1,740/year
• Left after tax and fees: about 4.7% of the price a year (6.4% before), before insurance, repairs and empty months
• Flood zone AE: flood insurance required with a mortgage, and not included above

Listing courtesy of BARGER REAL ESTATE

4 more, ranked by the same rule

2. 2
   2,804 sq ft home · St Petersburg$1M–$1.5M · about 5.9% a year after tax and fees
3. 3
   3,723 sq ft home · Tampa$2M–$3M · about 5.9% a year after tax and fees
4. 4
   2,577 sq ft home · St Petersburg$1M–$1.5M · about 4.6% a year after tax and fees
5. 5
   3,857 sq ft home · St Petersburg$1M–$1.5M · about 6.4% a year after tax and fees

See the other 4: book a 15-minute call

How this was tested. Rent estimates use only leases signed nearby in the two years before. Checked on 196 real buy-then-rent homes; estimates typically landed within 9–14% of the real rent. Property tax is estimated at 1.6% of the price, because the bill resets after a sale: owners who bought a $1M+ home here in 2023–2024 paid a median 1.4%. Insurance, repairs and empty months are not included; zone VE (coastal high-hazard) homes are left out.

Lots where builders are already tearing down

In South Tampa, 1 in 11 houses over 40 years old bought in 33629 in 2018–2022 was torn down, rebuilt and sold (33609: 1 in 14; 33606: 1 in 19). Across Tampa Bay: about 1 in 100.

Open pick · For sale

$1,099,000

2405 Lois Avenue, Tampa

listed as land · 10,200 sq ft lot

• Lot 10,200 sq ft
• Listed as land: priced for the lot
• 24 new $1M+ homes within half a mile sold in the last 2 years, for a typical $2.39M ($526/sq ft)
• 18 teardowns within half a mile already turned into new homes and sold since 2023: bought for a typical $718k, sold new for $2.49M; the builder could have spent up to $345/sq ft and broken even
• This one is asking $1.1M, against a typical $718k paid for those

Builders are active here: in 33629, about 1 in 11 houses 40+ years old bought in 2018–2022 was torn down, rebuilt and sold as a new home — against about 1 in 100 across Tampa Bay.

Listing courtesy of FLAT FEE MLS REALTY

3 more, ranked by the same rule

2. 2
   Lot listed as land · Tampa$1M–$1.5M · 9,620 sq ft lot · 23 teardowns rebuilt nearby
3. 3
   Lot listed as land · Tampa$500k–$1M · 6,798 sq ft lot · 23 teardowns rebuilt nearby
4. 4
   Lot listed as land · Tampa$3M–$4M · 14,679 sq ft lot · 18 teardowns rebuilt nearby

See the other 3: book a 15-minute call

How this was tested. This list was replayed month by month for 2019–2022: the old houses and lots it would have shown were torn down, rebuilt and sold 14.6% of the time, against 8.7% for similar homes with new builds nearby and 3.9% with none. The typical one was bought for $505,000 and sold as a new home for $2,315,000 about 24 months later. Rebuilds only count once the new house sold, so owner-builders who moved in are not counted.

Homes that didn’t sell, and then did

$1M+ homes that came off the market unsold and came back within 30 days with a different agent sold 69%–79% of the time. Homes that waited 90 days or more: 49%–52%.

How this was tested. Checked on every $1M+ home in Hillsborough and Pinellas that came off the market unsold between January 2024 and March 2025, in two separate halves. It is not just the easier homes coming back fast: among homes with the same profile, 74% of fast returners sold against 51% of those that waited. The stories are real MLS records from the last 18 months, with addresses withheld.

Before you offer: what the records say

About 1 in 3 $1M+ homes sold for 10% or more under the price a buyer saw that day. We tested 318 signals, from days on the market to flood zone, pool and who owns it, and none predicted which ones. The discount is won in the negotiation, not picked off a list.

• A big price cut is not the same as a good price. Homes asking 25% or more above what their area sells for per square foot sold 16%–24% under their original price, and still went for 16%–20% more per square foot than the area.
• A stale listing is often a seller who isn’t ready. Homes already on the market six months sold within the next year only 35%–40% of the time, against 51%–59% for newer listings.
• So the work is per home: what comparable homes on that street actually sold for, how long this seller has been trying, and what they have already turned down. Send me the home and I will pull it before you offer.

How this was tested. The market was rebuilt as it stood on the 15th of every month from January 2024 to September 2025, and every $1M+ listing was followed for 12 months. Signals had to hold in both halves of that period to count.