Luxury › Research

Data January 2024 to October 2026 · Rebuilt monthly

Tampa Bay luxury real estate, explained

In plain English

Each page below answers one question about $1M+ homes in Hillsborough and Pinellas, using what actually happened to 10,183 homes listed and 8,249 homes sold since January 2024, checked against county sale records.

Every page starts with the short version and an example, then shows the charts and numbers behind it.

Selling

Will a $1M+ home sell? About 1 in 3 didn’t within a year

33%

of $1M+ homes listed January 2024 to October 2025 didn’t sell within a year, counting private sales.

Clear pattern · 24-point gap

Selling

The first month sets the price

97% → 90%

of the first price: an offer in the first 30 days, then after.

Clear pattern · 21-point gap

Buying

Flood zones and waterfront: no difference before 2024, a big one since

40% vs 25%

of homes in flood zone AE vs zone X didn’t sell within a year (listed since 2024).

Clear pattern · 20-point gap

Selling

The house itself: size, pool and age

53% vs 28%

of houses over 7,000 sq ft vs the easiest size didn’t sell within a year.

Clear pattern · 25-point gap

Buying

Luxury condos got harder to sell in 2024 — especially in older buildings

43% vs 33%

of $1M+ condos vs houses didn’t sell within a year (listed since 2024).

Clear pattern · 32-point gap

Investing

What $1M+ homes actually rent for

6.5%

a year of rent as a share of the price, from 101 $1M+ homes bought since 2024 and rented out.

101 homes bought and rented

Investing

Tear down and rebuild: what builders could afford to spend

$327/sq ft

was the typical break-even building budget on 341 lots and teardowns that became $1M+ homes since 2024.

341 rebuilds

Investing

Bought and resold within two years: 55% didn’t cover their costs

55%

of 520 $1M+ homes resold within two years since 2024 didn’t cover the cost of buying and selling.

520 quick resales

Investing

What owning a $1M+ home for several years has earned

8.4%

a year, typically, for homes owned 3+ years and sold for $1M+ since 2024.

1,758 homes owned 3+ years

Buying

About half of $1M+ homes are bought with cash

72%

of $5M+ homes sold since 2024 were paid for in cash.

8,236 $1M+ sales

Selling

Does the month you list in matter?

28%–35%

didn’t sell within a year, from the best month to list to the worst.

Some pattern · 8-point gap

How we counted — and the claims that didn’t hold up →

What is actually happening with the property you are thinking about?

These pages carry market statistics, not a valuation. Tell me the property or the plan and I will put the analysis together myself.