Every number on this site comes from real MLS records for Hillsborough and Pinellas counties, January 2024 to October 2026, checked against county property sale records through September 2026.
We only publish a finding when the numbers clearly show it. Several popular ideas didn’t pass that test — they’re listed at the bottom of this page.
Which homes. Houses, condos and townhouses in Hillsborough and Pinellas with a first asking price or sale price of $1,000,000 or more. Mobile homes are left out, and so are brand-new homes sold by builders (builders record their listings in ways that don’t show a real sale attempt).
We follow the home, not the listing. If a listing is cancelled and the home is put back on the market, we treat it as the same attempt to sell. A home “didn’t sell within a year” only if no sale was agreed within 12 months of its first listing date.
Private sales. For every home that didn’t sell on the MLS, we looked up its parcel number in the Hillsborough and Pinellas property appraiser records. If the county recorded a sale after the home was listed, for at least 60% of its first asking price, we count it as “sold privately.” We could match 90% of these homes; 6% of those had sold privately.
Where every listing stands today. For all homes listed since January 2024, we show whether each one has sold, sold privately, is under contract, is still for sale, or was taken off the market.
Same house, sold twice. For rebuilds, quick resales and long-term ownership, we match two sales of the same address. A “rebuild” needs clear proof the house is new; an “unchanged home” needs the same year built and about the same size. Anything unclear is left out rather than guessed.
Costs. Where we estimate a profit or loss, we assume 8% of the price to sell and 2% to buy. Nothing else is assumed.
How clear is a pattern? We compare groups by how far apart they are: a 15-point gap or more is a clear pattern, 8–14 is some pattern, and under 8 is no real pattern. If a pattern fades in newer data, that page stops drawing a conclusion.
We tested this on 2,283 luxury sales, using only information available on the day each home was listed. The estimate missed the final price by a typical 12%; the asking price itself missed by 4%. The person who sets a list price has walked through the house. We don’t publish price estimates.
Counting listings counts a cancelled-and-relisted house twice. Counted that way, homes listed January 2024 to October 2025 look 40% “failed.” Following each home, 33% didn’t sell within a year.
We checked homes that didn’t sell on the MLS against Hillsborough and Pinellas property records. Of 2,811 we could match, 161 (6%) had sold privately.
The MLS doesn’t record when a price was cut. What it does show — homes that sell in the first month keep far more of their price — is on “The first month sets the price.”
Homes whose first contract fell apart went on to sell slightly more often than average. Someone wanted the house; many of those sales were simply completed later with a new buyer.
Whether a seller chose a round price or a “charm” price made no real difference to whether the home sold.
The MLS stopped recording where buyers come from — the field is empty on 2025 sales. Anyone quoting a percentage isn’t getting it from MLS records.
Cash buyers and mortgage buyers both paid about 91% of the first asking price on $1M+ homes since 2024.
The research is rebuilt every month; the neighborhood pages under Markets are rebuilt every day. This edition uses data through October 7, 2026.
These pages carry market statistics, not a valuation. Tell me the property or the plan and I will put the analysis together myself.