$205 a sq ft
was left to build this St. Pete home: old house bought for $325K, new home sold for $1.115M.
After ~2% buying + 8% selling costs · 3,382 sq ft · sold Sep 2026 · 33704
See the houses builders buy See the proof →Luxury › Investing
Investing · Hillsborough & Pinellas · $1M+
Investing in Tampa Bay luxury real estate
2 in 3
$1M+ homes bought and resold within 2 years lost money after costs.
278 of 418 resales closed 2023–2026 · after ~10% buying + selling costs
Check a deal before you buy See the proof →13 of 19
high-end new beach homes sold since the storms. With a standard finish, only 1 of 8.
27 finished new homes whose listing ended · checked by listing photos
What finish sells? See the proof →For sale now
$1.26M
Built 1923 · lot 17,494 sq ft
3 bd · 2 ba · 1,786 sq ft
Seminary Heights · St Petersburg
774 32nd Avenue
Listing courtesy of CHARLES RUTENBERG REALTY INC
Ask about this home
$945,000
Built 1920 · lot 10,467 sq ft
3 bd · 3 ba · 2,234 sq ft
Crescent Lake · St Petersburg
871 17th Avenue
Listing courtesy of COMPASS FLORIDA LLC
Ask about this home
$1.5M
Lot · 15,303 sq ft
Snell Isle Brightbay · St Petersburg
1020 Snell Isle Boulevard
Listing courtesy of VANDERLEELIE & ASSOC.RE ESTATE
Ask about this home
$1.1M
$343 a sq ft
6 bd · 4 ba · 3,207 sq ft
Veteran City · Gulfport
5407 29th Avenue
Listing courtesy of CORCORAN DWELLINGS
Ask about this home
$1.14M
$345 a sq ft
4 bd · 4 ba · 3,306 sq ft
Midtown · Tampa
607 Matanzas Avenue
Listing courtesy of DOMAIN REALTY LLC
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$1.2M
$360 a sq ft
4 bd · 3 ba · 3,334 sq ft
Davis Islands Pb10 Pg52 To 57 · Tampa
114 Davis Boulevard
Listing courtesy of KELLER WILLIAMS SOUTH SHORE
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$5.5M
New construction
3 bd · 6 ba · 5,146 sq ft
Isle Of Palms · Treasure Island
11325 4th Street
Listing courtesy of COASTAL PROPERTIES GROUP
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$3.49M
New construction
6 bd · 4 ba · 3,927 sq ft
Bay Point Estates · Madeira Beach
817 Bay Point Drive
Listing courtesy of PINEYWOODS REALTY LLC
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$1.899M
New construction
3 bd · 4 ba · 3,304 sq ft
Harbor Shores · Redington Shores
17610 1st Street
Listing courtesy of SEASIDE REALTY & ASSOCIATES LLC
Ask about this homeBuilding
Where building new luxury pays
Neighborhoods where new $1M+ homes sold in the last two years, what they sold for, what builders paid for the lot or the old house, and how much they could have spent building per square foot and still broken even.
| Neighborhood | New homes sold | Typical new home | New vs. older, per sq ft | Typical lot or teardown | Room to build, per sq ft |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venetian Isles, St Petersburg | 5 | $5M | +52% | $1.1M | $595 |
| Davis Islands, Tampa | 16 | $2.63M | +8% | $1.12M | $436 |
| Sunset Park, Tampa | 14 | $3.75M | +25% | $865k | $376 |
| Southland, Tampa | 10 | $2.61M | — | $715k | $351 |
| Bel Mar Shores, Tampa | 10 | $2.44M | — | $625k | $334 |
| Maryland Manor, Tampa | 10 | $2.24M | +20% | $375k | $300 |
| Bel Mar, Tampa | 22 | $1.76M | +7% | $573k | $297 |
| Bayhill Estates, Tampa | 6 | $1.41M | — | $415k | $285 |
| Palma Ceia Park, Tampa | 8 | $1.61M | +10% | $588k | $277 |
| Beach Park, Tampa | 8 | $3.02M | +25% | — | — |
Where it doesn’t pay: in Mirabay, Apollo Beach, new homes sold for 12% less per square foot than older ones.
“Room to build” is what the builder could have spent per square foot on everything (demolition, design, permits, construction) and still broken even when the new home sold, after buying and selling costs, before financing. Shown where 4+ rebuilds sold; “new vs. older” where 10+ older homes sold.
Investing
108 of 181
luxury homes bought and resold within two years lost money after buying and selling costs, a median $141k each.
Renting tells a different story: 73 homes leased for $10,000 or more a month last year, including an unfurnished home in Snell Isle Brightwaters, St Petersburg at $25,000 a month.
See the rentals that still pencil out →Building
$3.3M → $10.55M
A 1926 house in Indian Rocks Beach was bought and torn down. The new home sold 30 months later.
- Sunset Park, Tampa 13 rebuilds in 2 years, typically $865k → $3.7M
- Davis Islands, Tampa 12 rebuilds in 2 years, typically $1.12M → $3.95M
- Bel Mar, Tampa 12 rebuilds in 2 years, typically $573k → $1.82M
In plain English
Renting, rebuilding, flipping or holding — each strategy has a record here, including the deals that lost money.
Since January 2024: 101 homes bought and rented out typically earned 6.5% a year before costs; 341 rebuilds could have spent about $327 a square foot to build and still broken even; and 55% of quick resales didn’t cover their costs.
This week’s picks
For investors · this week’s picks
Where the rent is highest against the price
$1,149,900 · 4833 Windmill Palm Terrace, St Petersburg
4 more picks, shared on a call →
For builders · this week’s picks
Lots where builders are already tearing down
$1,099,000 · 2405 Lois Avenue, Tampa
3 more picks, shared on a call →
Selling
Will a $1M+ home sell? About 1 in 3 didn’t within a year
33%
of $1M+ homes listed January 2024 to October 2025 didn’t sell within a year, counting private sales.
Clear pattern · 24-point gapBuying
Flood zones and waterfront: no difference before 2024, a big one since
40% vs 25%
of homes in flood zone AE vs zone X didn’t sell within a year (listed since 2024).
Clear pattern · 20-point gapSelling
The house itself: size, pool and age
53% vs 28%
of houses over 7,000 sq ft vs the easiest size didn’t sell within a year.
Clear pattern · 25-point gapBuying
Luxury condos got harder to sell in 2024 — especially in older buildings
43% vs 33%
of $1M+ condos vs houses didn’t sell within a year (listed since 2024).
Clear pattern · 32-point gapInvesting
What $1M+ homes actually rent for
6.5%
a year of rent as a share of the price, from 101 $1M+ homes bought since 2024 and rented out.
101 homes bought and rentedInvesting
Tear down and rebuild: what builders could afford to spend
$327/sq ft
was the typical break-even building budget on 341 lots and teardowns that became $1M+ homes since 2024.
341 rebuildsInvesting
Bought and resold within two years: 55% didn’t cover their costs
55%
of 520 $1M+ homes resold within two years since 2024 didn’t cover the cost of buying and selling.
520 quick resalesInvesting
What owning a $1M+ home for several years has earned
8.4%
a year, typically, for homes owned 3+ years and sold for $1M+ since 2024.
1,758 homes owned 3+ yearsNeighborhoods selling below their city’s luxury price per square foot
From the last 180 days of sales, updated daily. A lower price per square foot usually means the homes need work, or the location is valued differently — it needs a look in person.
Clearwater
Wedgewood Estates
Trading 56% below the Pinellas County luxury $/sf
St Petersburg
Davista Rev Map of
Trading 41% below the St Petersburg luxury $/sf
Tampa
Tampa Palms
Trading 41% below the Tampa luxury $/sf
Brandon
Barrington Preserve
Trading 40% below the Hillsborough County luxury $/sf
Tampa
Waterchase Ph 1
Trading 36% below the Tampa luxury $/sf
Lithia
Creek Rdg Preserve
Trading 35% below the Hillsborough County luxury $/sf
The trade, underwritten on receipts.
Rental, rebuild or hold: tell me the strategy and the budget. I will send what the recorded sales and leases say it has actually returned here, including the ones that lost.