Luxury›Research› Will a $1M+ home sell? About 1 in 3 didn’t within a year
Selling · Hillsborough & Pinellas · Data January 2024 to October 2026
Will a $1M+ home sell? About 1 in 3 didn’t within a year
In plain English
We followed every $1M+ home that went up for sale in Hillsborough and Pinellas from January 2024 to October 2025 for one full year — even when the listing was cancelled and put back up, and we checked county records for homes that sold privately.
About 1 in 3 still hadn’t sold a year later. The higher the price, the worse the odds: about 3 in 10 at $1–1.5M, but about half at $5M and up.
For example: if 10 homes priced at $2–3M go on the market, the homes listed since 2024 say about 4 of them will still be unsold a year later.
Didn’t sell within a year
33%
6,999 homes listed January 2024 to October 2025
Priced $1–1.5M
29%
didn’t sell within a year
Priced $5M and up
53%
didn’t sell within a year
Pulled, then sold privately
6%
of homes that didn’t sell on the MLS
Where every $1M+ listing since January 2024 stands today10,183 homes, grouped by the quarter they were first listed
How to read this: green means sold. The older quarters at the top have had time to finish; the newest at the bottom are still in progress, which is why they show so much gold (still for sale).
SoldSold privately (county record)Under contractStill for saleTaken off the market
2024 Q1
76%18%
Sold 76% · Sold privately (county record) 3% · Under contract 0% · Still for sale 3% · Taken off the market 18% · 1,286 homes
2024 Q2
74%20%
Sold 74% · Sold privately (county record) 3% · Under contract 1% · Still for sale 3% · Taken off the market 20% · 1,170 homes
2024 Q3
69%21%
Sold 69% · Sold privately (county record) 5% · Under contract 1% · Still for sale 4% · Taken off the market 21% · 775 homes
2024 Q4
75%19%
Sold 75% · Sold privately (county record) 3% · Under contract 0% · Still for sale 3% · Taken off the market 19% · 769 homes
2025 Q1
72%21%
Sold 72% · Sold privately (county record) 3% · Under contract 0% · Still for sale 4% · Taken off the market 21% · 1,177 homes
2025 Q2
69%21%
Sold 69% · Sold privately (county record) 2% · Under contract 1% · Still for sale 7% · Taken off the market 21% · 1,120 homes
2025 Q3
68%9%20%
Sold 68% · Sold privately (county record) 2% · Under contract 1% · Still for sale 9% · Taken off the market 20% · 730 homes
2025 Q4
63%12%22%
Sold 63% · Sold privately (county record) 1% · Under contract 2% · Still for sale 12% · Taken off the market 22% · 628 homes
2026 Q1
61%18%18%
Sold 61% · Sold privately (county record) 0% · Under contract 4% · Still for sale 18% · Taken off the market 18% · 929 homes
2026 Q2
47%35%11%
Sold 47% · Sold privately (county record) 0% · Under contract 7% · Still for sale 35% · Taken off the market 11% · 881 homes
2026 Q3
17%14%66%
Sold 17% · Sold privately (county record) 0% · Under contract 14% · Still for sale 66% · Taken off the market 3% · 669 homes
The numbers
Homes
Sold
Sold privately (county record)
Under contract
Still for sale
Taken off the market
2024 Q1
1,286
76%
3%
0%
3%
18%
2024 Q2
1,170
74%
3%
1%
3%
20%
2024 Q3
775
69%
5%
1%
4%
21%
2024 Q4
769
75%
3%
0%
3%
19%
2025 Q1
1,177
72%
3%
0%
4%
21%
2025 Q2
1,120
69%
2%
1%
7%
21%
2025 Q3
730
68%
2%
1%
9%
20%
2025 Q4
628
63%
1%
2%
12%
22%
2026 Q1
929
61%
0%
4%
18%
18%
2026 Q2
881
47%
0%
7%
35%
11%
2026 Q3
669
17%
0%
14%
66%
3%
2026 Q4 (small sample)
49
0%
0%
6%
94%
0%
Look at the listings that have had time to play out: about 7 in 10 sold on the MLS, and about 2 in 10 were taken off the market without selling. A few owners sold privately after pulling the listing — the thin light-green slice.
Share that didn’t sell within a year, by first asking priceHomes listed January 2024 to October 2025
How to read this: a longer bar means more of those homes were still unsold a year later.
$1–1.5M
29% · n=3,558
$1.5–2M
33% · n=1,553
$2–3M
38% · n=1,096
$3–5M
39% · n=561
$5M+
53%53% · n=231
0%20%40%60%
The numbers
Homes
Didn’t sell within a year
Typical days to an accepted offer
Typical final price vs. first price
Sold at or above first price
$1–1.5M
3,558
29%
41
92%
19%
$1.5–2M
1,553
33%
51
91%
16%
$2–3M
1,096
38%
67
89%
12%
$3–5M
561
39%
74
88%
12%
$5M+
231
53%
111
86%
16%
Price changes how long it takes, too. Homes first priced at $5M or more that did sell took about 111 days to get an accepted offer. At $1–1.5M it took about 41 days.
Taking a home off the market doesn’t make the problem go away
Some sellers take their listing down and put it back up to look “new.” Buyers notice. Homes that were relisted didn’t sell within a year 56% of the time, compared with 29% for homes that stayed on one listing. The relisted homes that did sell went for about 83% of their first price.
Many people assume a listing that disappears sold quietly. We checked. Of 3,139 homes that didn’t sell on the MLS within a year, we matched 2,811 to Hillsborough and Pinellas property records. Only 161 of them (6%) had actually sold privately.
Why our number is different from others you may see
Most reports count listings. When a seller cancels a listing and puts the home back up, that looks like one failed listing and one new one — the same house counted twice. Counted that way, this same period looks like 40% “failed.” We follow the home instead, so a house that was relisted and then sold counts as a sale.
Condos have had a harder time than houses since 2024: 43% of $1M+ condos didn’t sell within a year, versus 33% of houses. See “Luxury condos.”
What it means for you
If you are sellingYour price range sets your odds before you do anything else. At $3M and up, plan for a longer sale — and get the first price right, because relisting doesn’t reset anything.
If you are buyingAbout 1 in 3 luxury homes won’t sell at their price within a year. A home that has sat for months belongs to a seller who knows that.
If you are investingThe more expensive the home, the harder it is to sell later. Plan your exit using the odds for that price range, not the market average.
What these words mean
First asking price
The price a home was first put on the market at, before any price cuts.
Did not sell within a year
No sale was agreed within 12 months of the home first going on the market, even if the listing was cancelled and put back up in between.
Relisted
The listing was taken down and put back on the market. The public days-on-market counter starts over, but we keep counting from the first day.
Taken off the market
The listing was cancelled, withdrawn or expired, and the home is not listed for sale now.
Sold privately
The listing came off the MLS, but the county recorded a sale of the same property afterwards.
Still for sale
The home is listed for sale today and has not accepted an offer yet.
Under contract
The seller has accepted an offer and the sale has not closed yet.
Median
The middle number: half of the homes were above it and half below. A few extreme sales cannot pull it around.
What this can’t tell you
Private sales come from county property records through September 2026. About 10% of unsold homes had no parcel number we could match, so a few private sales may be missed.
Brand-new homes sold by builders are left out: builders record their listings in ways that don’t reflect a real sale attempt.
“Within a year” needs a full year of results, so it covers homes listed through October 2025. Newer listings appear only in the “where they stand today” chart.
A private read on your property, before it goes on the market.
Where your home sits against the measured outcomes — its price band, size, flood zone, building age and the time comparable attempts took — and what I would do about it. Written by me, not generated.