Do luxury flips make money in Tampa Bay?

Since 2024, 55% of 520 $1M+ homes in Hillsborough and Pinellas resold within 24 months without major changes sold for too little to cover buying and selling costs, before any renovation; 19% sold below the purchase price (Stellar MLS).

Luxury › Research › Bought and resold within two years: 55% didn’t cover their costs

Investing · Hillsborough & Pinellas · Data January 2024 to October 2026

Bought and resold within two years: 55% didn’t cover their costs

In plain English

Since January 2024, 520 luxury homes were sold again within two years of being bought, with no big change to the house.

About 5 in 10 of them (55%) sold for too little to cover the costs of buying and selling — before counting any money spent fixing them up. About 2 in 10 sold for less than the owner paid.

For example: buy for $1,250,000 and sell 15 months later for $1,370,000 — 9% more. It looks like a $120,000 profit. But selling costs about $109,600 and buying cost about $25,000, so you end up about $14,600 behind — before any work on the house.

Didn’t cover costs

55%

sold for less than 1.11× the purchase

Sold below the purchase price

19%

lost money outright

Typical resale price

+9%

over what was paid

Typical time owned

15 months

520 homes

Share that didn’t cover costs, by year of the resaleSame house resold within 24 months for $1M+

How to read this: a longer bar means more quick resales that year didn’t make enough to cover buying and selling costs.

2024

54% 54% · n=202

2025

56% 56% · n=177

2026 (so far)

55% · n=141

0%20%40%60%80%

The numbers

	Homes	Low end (25th pct)	Typical (median)	High end (75th pct)	Didn’t cover costs	Sold below purchase
2024	202	1.03×	1.10×	1.27×	54%	14%
2025	177	1.00×	1.08×	1.26×	56%	23%
2026 (so far)	141	1.00×	1.09×	1.31×	55%	21%

Share that didn’t cover costs, by what the buyer originally paidPaying less up front is the one thing that clearly helped

How to read this: the shortest bar is the group that did best.

paid 91% of asking or less

40% 40% · n=93

paid 91–96% of asking

64% · n=140

paid 96–99% of asking

67% · n=82

paid full asking or more

51% · n=205

0%20%40%60%80%

The numbers

	Homes	Low end (25th pct)	Typical (median)	High end (75th pct)	Didn’t cover costs
paid 91% of asking or less	93	1.06×	1.22×	1.50×	40%
paid 91–96% of asking	140	1.00×	1.07×	1.19×	64%
paid 96–99% of asking	82	1.00×	1.07×	1.14×	67%
paid full asking or more	205	1.01×	1.10×	1.27×	51%

Buyers who paid 91% of the asking price or less did best: 40% didn’t cover their costs when they resold. Buyers who paid full asking price or more: 51%.

By the age of the house when it was bought

	Homes	Low end (25th pct)	Typical (median)	High end (75th pct)	Didn’t cover costs	Sold below purchase
10 years old or newer	217	1.01×	1.09×	1.20×	57%	20%
11–25 years old	75	1.00×	1.07×	1.18×	61%	21%
26–45 years old	98	1.02×	1.10×	1.38×	52%	17%
over 45 years old	130	1.02×	1.12×	1.37×	49%	18%

What it means for you

If you are investingA quick luxury resale needs its profit locked in when you buy — the market since 2024 hasn’t added enough in two years to cover the costs.

If you are selling a home you bought recentlyMost owners who bought in the last two years can’t get back what they put in. Pricing to recover your purchase can price you out of the buyers who are actually shopping.

What these words mean

Transaction costs: The cost of buying and selling: agent commissions, title, transfer taxes and closing fees. We use 8% of the price to sell and 2% to buy.
Unchanged home: The same house sold twice with no big change: same year built and about the same size (within 15%).
Median: The middle number: half of the homes were above it and half below. A few extreme sales cannot pull it around.

What this can’t tell you

This includes ordinary owners who moved within two years, not just investors. The math is the same for both.
Renovation spending isn’t recorded in the MLS, so real fix-and-flip results are worse than these numbers.
Only resales of $1M or more are counted; homes that resold for less than $1M are missing, so the real share of losses is likely higher.
Buying and selling costs are estimated at 2% and 8% of the price.

Related research

Selling

Will a $1M+ home sell? About 1 in 3 didn’t within a year

33%

of $1M+ homes listed January 2024 to October 2025 didn’t sell within a year, counting private sales.

Clear pattern · 24-point gap

Buying

Flood zones and waterfront: no difference before 2024, a big one since

40% vs 25%

of homes in flood zone AE vs zone X didn’t sell within a year (listed since 2024).

Clear pattern · 20-point gap

Selling

The house itself: size, pool and age

53% vs 28%

of houses over 7,000 sq ft vs the easiest size didn’t sell within a year.

Clear pattern · 25-point gap

Buying

Luxury condos got harder to sell in 2024 — especially in older buildings

43% vs 33%

of $1M+ condos vs houses didn’t sell within a year (listed since 2024).

Clear pattern · 32-point gap

The trade, underwritten on receipts.

Rental, rebuild or hold: tell me the strategy and the budget. I will send what the recorded sales and leases say it has actually returned here, including the ones that lost.