How much have luxury homes in Tampa Bay gone up in value?

$1M+ homes in Hillsborough and Pinellas sold since 2024 after 3+ years of ownership grew a typical 8.4% a year over the hold (same house, price only, Stellar MLS).

Luxury › Research › What owning a $1M+ home for several years has earned

Investing · Hillsborough & Pinellas · Data January 2024 to October 2026

What owning a $1M+ home for several years has earned

In plain English

1,758 homes that sold for $1M or more since January 2024 had been owned for at least three years — typically about 5.6 years.

Their price grew about 8.4% a year, on average, while their owners held them. But it has been slowing: 11.4% a year for homes sold in 2024, 8.2% a year for homes sold in 2025, 6.5% a year for homes sold in 2026 so far.

For example: a home bought for $900,000 and owned 5.6 years, growing 8.4% a year, would sell for about $1,410,000. At 2026’s pace (6.5% a year), the same home would sell for about $1,280,000.

Typical yearly price growth, by the year the home soldSame house, owned 3+ years, sold for $1M+

How to read this: each bar is how fast prices grew per year for the homes sold that year.

2024

11.4% 11.4% · n=564

2025

8.2% · n=581

2026 (so far)

6.5% 6.5% · n=613

0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%

The numbers

	Homes	Low end (25th pct)	Typical (median)	High end (75th pct)	Typical months owned
2024	564	8.9%	11.4%	15.1%	67
2025	581	5.6%	8.2%	10.9%	64
2026 (so far)	613	3.8%	6.5%	8.6%	70

By type of home

	Homes	Low end (25th pct)	Typical (median)	High end (75th pct)
Single-family	1,460	5.9%	8.7%	11.8%
Condo	232	5.1%	7.5%	10.1%
Townhouse	66	5.0%	6.6%	9.8%

On the water or not

	Homes	Low end (25th pct)	Typical (median)	High end (75th pct)
on the water	843	5.7%	8.6%	11.7%
not on the water	915	5.8%	8.3%	11.3%

The 2024 storms left a mark: flood-zone homes sold before the storms had grown about 12.0% a year, but those sold after grew about 7.1%. Zone X homes slowed less, from 10.9% to 8.0%.

What it means for you

If you are investingPlan a new purchase around today’s pace (6.5% a year), not the double-digit growth of a few years ago.

If you’re selling after years of ownershipYour gain is real — but the buyer is planning on today’s slower growth, not the pace you enjoyed.

What these words mean

Annual price gain: How much the price grew each year, on average, between the purchase and the sale.
Unchanged home: The same house sold twice with no big change: same year built and about the same size (within 15%).
Median: The middle number: half of the homes were above it and half below. A few extreme sales cannot pull it around.

What this can’t tell you

Price change only — before buying and selling costs, property taxes, insurance, upkeep and any improvements.
Only homes that sold for $1M or more are counted. Homes that sold for less are left out, which makes these numbers look somewhat better than reality.
Renovations that didn’t change the size or year built aren’t visible and make the growth look higher.

Related research

Selling

Will a $1M+ home sell? About 1 in 3 didn’t within a year

33%

of $1M+ homes listed January 2024 to October 2025 didn’t sell within a year, counting private sales.

Clear pattern · 24-point gap

Selling

The first month sets the price

97% → 90%

of the first price: an offer in the first 30 days, then after.

Clear pattern · 21-point gap

Buying

Flood zones and waterfront: no difference before 2024, a big one since

40% vs 25%

of homes in flood zone AE vs zone X didn’t sell within a year (listed since 2024).

Clear pattern · 20-point gap

Selling

The house itself: size, pool and age

53% vs 28%

of houses over 7,000 sq ft vs the easiest size didn’t sell within a year.

Clear pattern · 25-point gap

The trade, underwritten on receipts.

Rental, rebuild or hold: tell me the strategy and the budget. I will send what the recorded sales and leases say it has actually returned here, including the ones that lost.