4 luxury homes closed in Creek Rdg Preserve, Lithia over the last 6 months at a median $1.24M ($288 per square foot), taking a median 0 days to go under contract. Trading 35% below the Hillsborough County luxury $/sf.
A resale in Creek Rdg Preserve (Lithia) is competing with a sales office that does not negotiate its list price but does negotiate rate buydowns, closing costs and upgrades. Resale pricing has to be read against the builder's incentive package, not against its posted price — most published comparisons here get that backwards.
Closed sales in Creek Rdg Preserve (Lithia) run $288/sf against a $445/sf benchmark for luxury single-family in Hillsborough County. That gap is either a condition and finish story — which renovation capital closes — or a location the market prices differently on purpose. Which one it is decides whether this is an opportunity or a trap, and it is not answerable from a spreadsheet.
Every figure above is an aggregate over closed sales in Creek Rdg Preserve, Lithia in the 6 months through October 23, 2026, taken from licensed Stellar MLS data. Months of supply is the current number for sale divided by the recent monthly sales pace. "Sold vs original ask" compares the closing price to the price the home was FIRST listed at, which is where overpricing shows up — the final asking price has usually already absorbed the cuts. None of this is an appraisal or a valuation of any particular property.
of $1M+ homes listed January 2024 to October 2025 didn’t sell within a year, counting private sales.
of the first price: an offer in the first 30 days, then after.
of homes in flood zone AE vs zone X didn’t sell within a year (listed since 2024).
was the typical break-even building budget on 341 lots and teardowns that became $1M+ homes since 2024.
Rental, rebuild or hold: tell me the strategy and the budget. I will send what the recorded sales and leases say it has actually returned here, including the ones that lost.