Hillsborough County has 92 luxury pockets where the median closing is $1M or more — 325 closed sales in the last 6 months at a median $1.46M and $455 per square foot, against 245 on the market today. Trading 40% below the Hillsborough County luxury $/sf in Barrington Preserve, Brandon.
Closed sales in Barrington Preserve (Brandon) run $269/sf against a $445/sf benchmark for luxury single-family in Hillsborough County. That gap is either a condition and finish story — which renovation capital closes — or a location the market prices differently on purpose. Which one it is decides whether this is an opportunity or a trap, and it is not answerable from a spreadsheet.
10 homes closed in Barrington Preserve (Brandon) in the last 6 months and not one is on the market today. Buyers who want this pocket have no alternatives, which is the one condition that makes a strong number stick.
37 condos closed in Westshore Yacht Club Aqua Tower 1 (Tampa) in the last 6 months and not one is on the market today. Buyers who want this pocket have no alternatives, which is the one condition that makes a strong number stick.
Across 6 closed homes in Ladera (Lutz), the median sale came in at 87% of the ORIGINAL asking price, and 67% of those sellers cut their price before they found a buyer. Median time to contract was 64 days. At this price point that opening number costs real money: the first two weeks of buyer attention are spent on a number the market has already rejected.
6 homes closed in Ladera (Lutz) in the last 6 months and only 2 are on the market today (2 more already under contract). Buyers who want this pocket have no alternatives, which is the one condition that makes a strong number stick.
7 homes closed in Mirabay Ph 1b 1 2a 1 3b 1 (Apollo Beach) in the last 6 months and not one is on the market today. Buyers who want this pocket have no alternatives, which is the one condition that makes a strong number stick.
| City | Pockets | Median | $/sf | Sales | For sale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa | 71 | $1.56M | $473 | 254 | 204 |
| Odessa | 8 | $1.27M | $332 | 25 | 18 |
| Lutz | 3 | $1.21M | $290 | 13 | 7 |
| Apollo Beach | 4 | $1.19M | $322 | 11 | 8 |
| Brandon | 1 | $1.01M | $269 | 10 | 0 |
| Lithia | 2 | $1.25M | $318 | 5 | 2 |
| Ruskin | 1 | $1.24M | $432 | 4 | 1 |
| Thonotosassa | 1 | $2.08M | $408 | 2 | 3 |
| Plant City | 1 | $1.55M | $314 | 1 | 2 |
| Median | $/sf | Sales | For sale | Months | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrington Preserve Single-family · Trading 40% below the Hillsborough County luxury $/sf |
$1.01M | $269 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| Westshore Yacht Club Aqua Tower 1 Condo · Nothing is for sale here at all — 37 sold, none listed |
$2.02M | $838 | 37 | 0 | 0 |
| Ladera Single-family · Sellers here start about 13% above what buyers actually pay |
$1.78M | $355 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| Bayshore Ysabella Condominium Condo · Median 103 days to contract — time is on the buyer's side |
$2.48M | $829 | 7 | 11 | 9.3 |
| Mirabay Ph 1b 1 2a 1 3b 1 Single-family · Nothing is for sale here at all — 7 sold, none listed |
$1.13M | $349 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Virginia Park Single-family · About 1.5 months of supply — there is almost nothing to buy here |
$1.26M | $443 | 16 | 4 | 1.5 |
| Bel Mar Shores Rev Single-family · Median 187 days to contract — time is on the buyer's side |
$2.4M | $473 | 5 | 7 | 8.3 |
| Davis Islands Pb10 Pg52 To 57 Single-family · 53% of sales here went under contract within two weeks |
$1.43M | $576 | 17 | 19 | 6.6 |
| Morrison Grove Sub Single-family · About 1.7 months of supply — there is almost nothing to buy here |
$2.2M | $645 | 7 | 2 | 1.7 |
| Hyde Park West Single-family · Sellers here start about 16% above what buyers actually pay |
$2M | $608 | 5 | 2 | 2.4 |
| Ridgewood Park Single-family · Sellers here start about 12% above what buyers actually pay |
$1.46M | $462 | 5 | 4 | 4.7 |
| Brobston Fendig Co Half Wa Single-family · Sellers here start about 10% above what buyers actually pay |
$1.2M | $379 | 5 | ≤1 | — |
| Sunset Park Single-family · 50% cut their price and it still took 88 days |
$2.02M | $541 | 10 | 18 | 10.6 |
| The Plaza Harbour Island A Con Condo · Sellers here start about 10% above what buyers actually pay |
$1.39M | $713 | 4 | 5 | 7.4 |
| Castillo at Westshore Yacht Cl Condo · Trading 31% below the Tampa luxury $/sf |
$1.29M | $519 | 3 | 4 | 7.9 |
| Victoria Lakes Single-family · Median 150 days to contract — time is on the buyer's side |
$1.07M | $310 | 4 | 6 | 8.9 |
| Antigua Cove Ph 1 Single-family · Sellers here start about 10% above what buyers actually pay |
$1.24M | $432 | 4 | 1 | 1.5 |
| Creek Rdg Preserve Single-family · Trading 35% below the Hillsborough County luxury $/sf |
$1.24M | $288 | 4 | ≤1 | — |
| Pershing Park Single-family · Sellers here start about 16% above what buyers actually pay |
$1.02M | $445 | 4 | ≤1 | — |
| Riverside Heights Single-family · Median 111 days to contract — time is on the buyer's side |
$1.27M | $337 | 3 | 5 | 9.9 |
| Davis Islands Single-family · Median 108 days to contract — time is on the buyer's side |
$1.07M | $460 | 4 | ≤1 | — |
| Beach Park Single-family · About 10.2 months of luxury inventory — buyers set the pace |
$1.9M | $558 | 11 | 19 | 10.2 |
| Waterchase Ph 1 Single-family · Trading 36% below the Tampa luxury $/sf |
$1.01M | $294 | 3 | ≤1 | — |
| Tampa Palms Single-family · Trading 41% below the Tampa luxury $/sf |
$1M | $270 | 3 | 2 | 3.9 |
| Byars Thompson Add Davis Single-family · Commands 39% more per square foot than Tampa |
$2.42M | $641 | 3 | 4 | 7.9 |
of $1M+ homes listed January 2024 to October 2025 didn’t sell within a year, counting private sales.
of the first price: an offer in the first 30 days, then after.
of homes in flood zone AE vs zone X didn’t sell within a year (listed since 2024).
was the typical break-even building budget on 341 lots and teardowns that became $1M+ homes since 2024.
These pages carry market statistics, not a valuation. Tell me the property or the plan and I will put the analysis together myself.