3 luxury homes closed in Waterchase Ph 1, Tampa over the last 6 months at a median $1.01M ($294 per square foot), taking a median 11 days to go under contract. Trading 36% below the Tampa luxury $/sf.
Closed sales in Waterchase Ph 1 (Tampa) run $294/sf against a $461/sf benchmark for luxury single-family in Tampa. That gap is either a condition and finish story — which renovation capital closes — or a location the market prices differently on purpose. Which one it is decides whether this is an opportunity or a trap, and it is not answerable from a spreadsheet.
Waterchase Ph 1 (Tampa) does not trade often enough for averages to carry weight. At this price point that is normal and it is exactly why portal estimates are worst here: with 3 comparable sales, the condition, the lot and the finish decide the number, not the median.
Every figure above is an aggregate over closed sales in Waterchase Ph 1, Tampa in the 6 months through October 23, 2026, taken from licensed Stellar MLS data. Months of supply is the current number for sale divided by the recent monthly sales pace. "Sold vs original ask" compares the closing price to the price the home was FIRST listed at, which is where overpricing shows up — the final asking price has usually already absorbed the cuts. None of this is an appraisal or a valuation of any particular property.
of $1M+ homes listed January 2024 to October 2025 didn’t sell within a year, counting private sales.
of the first price: an offer in the first 30 days, then after.
of homes in flood zone AE vs zone X didn’t sell within a year (listed since 2024).
was the typical break-even building budget on 341 lots and teardowns that became $1M+ homes since 2024.
Rental, rebuild or hold: tell me the strategy and the budget. I will send what the recorded sales and leases say it has actually returned here, including the ones that lost.